UPDATE | 5 p.m. ― Rain and thunderstorms may reach the I-495 and I-95 corridors shortly after 5 p.m., just in time for the afternoon commute. Afterward, these pockets of thunderstorms will then advance into the Boston area along the cold front, with trailing storms lingering behind through 10 p.m. There is still plenty of fuel to keep storms intact, but diminishing sunlight will likely take the pop out — though lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds are still very possible.
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Rain mostly past now but widespread street flooding in Holyoke @DHTheWeatherNut pic.twitter.com/8Y8LMDItv7
— Jay Leonard (@JayLeonard) June 14, 2024

UPDATE | 4:30 p.m. — The severe thunderstorm warning has been canceled for parts of western and central Massachusetts.
UPDATE | 4 p.m. — A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for parts of western and central Massachusetts, including Amherst, through 5 p.m. as another round of powerful storms unleashing torrential rain moves through the region, according to the National Weather Service. These storms are packing damaging 60 mile-an-hour wind gusts, lightning and dime-size hail. The warning covers Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester counties. Residents are advised to seek shelter and get indoors, stay away from windows and move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
UPDATE | 3:10 p.m. — Here is the approximate timeline for the second round of strong thunderstorms to move into Boston and the rest of New England. The storms are expected to produce bursts of heavy downpours, gusty winds of up to 60 miles per hour, lightning and hail.
• 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. — Storms begin to develop across western Massachusetts and Connecticut and spread into central Mass. With the front tilted toward the northeast, pockets of storms will spread through New Hampshire and Maine.
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• 6 p.m. - 10 p.m. — Pockets of thunderstorms advance into the Greater Boston along the front, with trailing storms lingering behind, over much of Southern New England. There is still plenty of fuel to keep storms intact, but diminishing sunlight may take the pop out — though lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds are still very possible.
• After 10 p.m. — Rain and thunderstorms will linger through Southern New England behind the main storm’s wake, with light to steady showers and a few rumbles of thunder through midnight, this is especially the case for Boston and Providence and areas toward the Cape.


UPDATE | 2:16 p.m. — The severe thunderstorm warning has been lifted for Boston and the surrounding areas as a heavy line of charged storms moves out to the east. A second round of strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours are expected to fire up later this afternoon into the evening, possibly impacting the evening commute home for areas west of Boston.
AJ1L-Jeff Lehmann - Revere MA - Severe Tstorm Wind Damage #mawx pic.twitter.com/mDuH3yoTVY
— NWS Boston/Norton Skywarn (@WX1BOX) June 14, 2024
Behind this round of storms will be a main cold front that will push into the region, developing into a second round of thunderstorms later this afternoon in Western Mass. and after 7 p.m. in the Boston area. The main question will be if there is enough energy to bring the severe potential as forecast.
UPDATE | 1:28 p.m. — A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Boston and the surrounding area through 2:15 p.m. as a strengthening cell brings heavy to torrential downpours, wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour and potentially pea-size hail. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service.
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Damaging winds, hail, and lightning are possible with these storms, so be sure to stay in an interior room in your home or building until this round of storms passes. This line of storms is moving very quickly with a good amount of instability in the atmosphere, which is allowing for strong updrafts that increase the wind and hail potential.

Impacted areas include: Boston, Cambridge, Quincy, Lynn, Newton, Somerville, Framingham, Waltham, Malden, Brookline, Medford, Weymouth, Revere, Peabody, Arlington, Everett, Salem, Beverly, Woburn, and Braintree, according to the NWS.
A fast-moving cold front is sweeping into the region and fire up a number of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour and possibly some lightning and hail. There will be two waves with today’s setup, one in the late morning and early afternoon, and the another with stronger storms possible into the evening.

The system is developing out of a low-pressure system that will pass north of New England today, extending a massive cold front southward that will enter the region from the northwest. This setup coincides with a southward bend in the jet stream, otherwise known as a trough, which is an indicator of a less stable atmosphere that can produce very strong weather.

Greater Boston will likely start out with mostly sunny skies once again with building clouds throughout the day and temperatures soaring into the 80s, likely breaking the 85-degree mark. But you’ll notice quite a difference in the air throughout the day with dew points jumping to the mid-60s, making it feel muggy. There will be with plenty of moisture available to make the air unstable enough to lift ahead of the front. Winds will be noticeable, too, reaching 15 miles per hour with gusts of 25 miles per hour before the storms move in.
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Timing of the storms
This quick-moving front will push along the state before it slows down as it gets closer to Boston — mainly due to an offshore low will stall the front from exiting quickly. The front is angled from the southwest to the northeast, which means that Northern New England will see wet weather sooner in the day, but that will cool the atmosphere enough where the severe risk diminishes up north.
Let’s break down the timing of the thunderstorms:
• Noon - 3 p.m. — New storms pop up across Southern New England, mainly across Western and Central Mass., southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont bringing some heavy rainfall potential with an atmosphere full of moisture. These storms may accelerate quickly to Boston, bringing some heavy downpours. Meanwhile, lingering storms intensify along coastal Maine.

• 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. — We’ll be at peak daytime heating with heightened instability and a new line of strong storms should develop and extend from New Hampshire through central Mass. and into Connecticut. Interstates 95 and 495, and much of the Mass Pike just west of Boston should see strong to severe storms during this window. There’s the chance for storms to develop as individual cells, which may keep some areas less impacted.
Boston could see heavy rain with an initial wave of storms early afternoon with potentially heavier storms beginning as early as 4 p.m. but as late as 7 p.m., likely impacting the commute home.
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• 6 p.m. - 9 p.m. — Storms push through Boston, much of Rhode Island, and through southeastern Mass., including the Cape and the Islands, though you can expect storm intensity to diminish, especially in the city and across the Cape and Islands.
• After 9 p.m. — Pockets of trailing rain will linger through Southern New England behind the main storm’s wake, with light to steady showers and a few rumbles of thunder through midnight, this is especially the case for Boston and Providence and areas toward the Cape.
Storm impacts
A handful of hazards will be at play this afternoon and evening with these storms — heavy downpours, lightning, and potentially damaging wind gusts and hail are all possible with storm cells that develop. Much of this system’s intensity should remain west of Boston, focusing on west of I-95 and along the Mass Pike and I-84 into Connecticut.

It’s worth noting that instability may vary between areas that see more sun during the day than others, which means storms may cluster together, leaving some areas seeing more or less intense storms.

Much of the region should see anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches — but a few locally higher amounts to 2 inches are possible and could lead to flash flooding in some areas.

Friday’s breakdown
Southern New England: Humidity builds ahead of the approaching front. The day starts dry with partly to mostly sunny skies as temperatures start off mild in the morning, near 70 at sunrise. Highs will build to the mid- to high-80s, except if you head toward the Cape where temperatures will stall in the upper 70s thanks to the slightly cooler breeze from the south. There may be a spot shower or two in the morning, but the main storms will develop throughout the afternoon, packing pockets of heavy rain, lightning, and potentially damaging wind gusts. Light rain may linger behind the main wave after sunset.
Western Mass.: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures building toward 80 pretty quickly. The Pioneer Valley will see daily highs possibly reaching 87 or 88 degrees while the Berkshires may not get there with storms developing around noon. You can expect highs across Berkshire county to reach the mid and upper 70s. It will feel slightly muggy out and storms as storms will fire up in two rounds — some lighter, scattered showers in the morning and then larger storms popping up around mid-afternoon. Pockets of heavy rain, lightning, and potentially damaging wind gusts are likely.
Cape and Islands: The Cape will stay the driest the longest today as skies will bounce between mostly sunny to mostly cloudy at times. The southerly breeze will keep temperatures cool enough where highs only reach the low- and mid-70s, but also will do the area a favor and take away from storm intensity. Storms eventually make it to the Cape after 6 p.m., where it’ll stay rainy until about midnight.
Northern New England: Rain and general thunderstorms should be in place early in the morning across Vermont, and push toward New Hampshire and Maine late morning and last through the afternoon. Without maximum heating from the sun, storms across the northern tier should remain lighter than across Southern New England. Still, rain across Northern New England may reach a half inch to an inch. Otherwise, it’ll be a mostly cloudy day.
Check out the full weekend forecast here.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman. Marianne Mizera can be reached at marianne.mizera@globe.com. Follow her @MareMizera.